Pancake Blogs

Dark Horse QBs?
Commenting on Adam Levitan's "Blame it on the quarterback" entry, TC requested an examination of "backup/injured QB's who could have an opportunity to start this offseason." This entry is intended for owners in two-quarterback leagues or deep Dynasty leagues. Since conventional wisdom already has Michael Vick and Matt Moore starting in 2010, I'm going to exclude them from the list.

1. Chad Pennington, Free Agent - Five years ago, the Cardinals signed a declining veteran with durability concerns to compete for the starting job. Could lightning strike twice in Arizona? The most accurate QB in NFL history (Kurt Warner is second), Pennington could conceivably beat out Matt Leinart in a fair competition if healthy by training camp. Outside of Arizona, it's tough to see Penny having significant fantasy value.

2. Sage Rosenfels, Vikings - It's not like Tarvaris Jackson decisively knocked Rosenfels out of the No. 2 job last summer. The two would battle again if Brett Favre strings the Vikes along only to retire in August, and Rosenfels is a far better bet than Jackson to be a fantasy asset. As we pointed out last summer, the Vikings offense is fantasy gold.
3. Marc Bulger, Rams (Free Agent) - Similar to Pennington, Bulger is a declining veteran who would have fantasy value only if he landed in an ideal spot such as Arizona. Punch-drunk after years behind a poor offensive line, Bulger is a sitting duck for defenses that tend to blitz.

4. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings - Jackson needs a last-minute Favre retirement decision and a victory over Sage Rosenfels to take the reins in Minnesota. He's been given multiple chances and has never been a significant fantasy factor even as a starter.

5. Trent Edwards, Bills - Picking up steam as a realistic possibility to start the season, but it's way too early to assume it will happen. Can't stay healthy or pass down the field, so he wouldn't hold the job for long.

6. Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders - Oakland can find a better QB, but they may not realize it. Gradkowski can't last long as a starter with a sub-55 completion percentage.

7. Troy Smith, Ravens - Angling for a trade, but it's hard to picture anyone giving up a mid-round pick to make the Ravens move their backup. Wouldn't last long as a starter.

8. Tyler Thigpen, Dolphins - Not a long-term starter for an NFL team, but could post interesting fantasy stats in a multi-game window.

9. Nate Davis, 49ers - Alex Smith isn't a strong bet to make it through all 16 games in 2010.

10. Dennis Dixon, Steelers - Great athlete possesses intriguing talent, but needs a serious Big Ben injury or a trade out of Pittsburgh.

11. Seneca Wallace, Seahawks - Has been a legit QB2 when filling in for Matt Hasselbeck the past few seasons.

12. Derek Anderson, Browns - His accuracy woes always made him a poor bet for sustained success, and he's regressed the past two seasons.

13. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs - Given plenty of chances in Kansas City, and he was brutal each time. He simply can't generate offense.

14. Josh Johnson, Bucs - Still plenty raw, Johnson is a long-term backup unless he has a quarterback epiphany behind Josh Freeman.


The "MVPs" of 2009:
Believe me, I don’t go out of my way to find evidence against drafting quarterbacks high in fantasy. The information just finds me. It’s like the stack of money in the Geico commericals --it’s everywhere.

I just stumbled across something on Yahoo called MVPs. Basically, it tells you who the good fantasy teams had last season, or the "keys to success." The official definition they give is “the table below shows the list of players who appear most often on the top 500 Public League teams in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football Plus.”

Of course, we all know public leagues are often jokes and 500 teams is a very small sample size. But it’s still worth checking out. Here’s the top 10 guys, with the percent of those teams X player was on:

1. Chris Johnson, 79.8%
2. Aaron Rodgers, 49.6%
3. DeSean Jackson, 38.0%

4. Maurice Jones-Drew, 32.8%
5. Ray Rice, 30.6%
6. Dallas Clark, 29.8%
7. Brandon Marshall, 28.2%
8. Reggie Wayne, 27.2%
9. Andre Johnson, 24.8%
10. Vernon Davis, 24.6%

The CJ28 percentage is staggering. Basically, eight out of 10 top-tier teams had him on their roster. Makes sense.

Anyway, the point is that there is just one QB in the top 10. If you follow the link, you’ll find that the next QB on the list is Matt Schaub at No. 31. And we have to go all the way to Brett Favre at No. 46 to find the third “most valuable” quarterback.

Having a top-tier quarterback like Drew Brees or Peyton Manning was not a recipe for success. Guys with lower ADPs like Schaub, Favre and Rodgers to some extent are what won.

For further proof, gere are the number of quarterbacks that have thrown for 4,000+ yards over the last 10 seasons:

2009: 10
2008: 6
2007: 7
2006: 5
2005: 2
2004: 5
2003: 2
2002: 4
2001: 2
2000: 3

If you can’t draw conclusions from that, please seek your nearest community college. I won’t be drafting any teams for another six months (sigh), but you can be sure I won’t be taking a quarterback until the middle rounds. Who will I be targeting? We’ll get to that later, but I’m confident there will be 8-10 we can win with.


Blame it on the quarterback:
As a rookie, Sidney Rice caught 31 balls for 396 yards. He followed that up by stepping backward en route to 15 catches and 141 yards in his sophomore season. He was on a path to bustville.

In 2009, his third season, Rice broke out for 1,312 yards on 83 catches. Did he all of a sudden start running better routes? Maybe. Did he get stronger? Perhaps. Was he higher on the depth chart? Yes.

But we all know what the real reason was for Rice’s breakout: He finally got a real NFL quarterback (Brett Favre) throwing him the ball. And that’s what is so important to remember about some of these receivers that have been disappointing. A lot of times, it simply isn’t their fault.

So as we head into free agency and the draft, here are six receivers that would benefit greatly from a potential QB change/improvement:

1. Chaz Schilens, Raiders: Bruce Gradkowski isn’t the answer, but he can make Schilens relevant in fantasy. He’s the Raiders’ best receiver. We’ll see what happens with JaMarcus.

2. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, Redskins: The ‘Skins are widely expected to take Sam Bradford with the No. 4 overall pick. Bradford’s much-heralded accuracy should help the separation issues these two receivers have.

3. Lee Evans, Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards, and J.P Losman. That’s what Evans has had to work with. Still, I’m not sure Michael Vick or Jimmy Clausen would even be an upgrade.

4. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Even before the suspension, Bowe was a little disappointing. His physical tools are top notch, he needs to Matt Cassel to take a big step up.

5. Brian Robiskie, Browns: The bust word was already thrown around after the second-round pick was barely active as a rookie. Robiskie needs to get out of coach Eric Mangini’s doghouse first.


Redeemers vs. Non-Redeemers:
Take a stroll through Twitter Friday morning, and you'll see entry after entry utterly bemused at the Bengals' interest in Pacman Jones and "Moonshine" Matt Jones. For example: The Bengals are like the desperate girl who "dates broken guys and thinks she can fix them." One national writer openly wondered if the Bengals were "just having some fun with people's perceptions of the team at the expense of actually trying to find players who will help them attempt to repeat as AFC North champs."

Bengals owner Mike Brown is a complicated man. He's often been voted the worst owner in the NFL, and, at least once, the worst owner in professional sports. He cares nothing for public opinion, much less his own fans' approval. He's loyal to a fault -- literally. He's a hide-bound conservative on football operations, running his nepotistic franchise as if his calendar was stuck on 1958. Yet his views on personnel acquisitions are as open-minded as any in the league.

Adam Schefter and other analysts were painting Marvin Lewis as a champion of second and third chances while breaking the Pacman and Moonshine stories Friday morning. If you'll remember, however, it was Brown who kept bringing back Chris Henry and Odell Thurman against Lewis' protests.

Since Paul Brown died in 1991, Bengals fans have seen the cheap Mike Brown, the franchise crumbling Mike Brown, the huckster Mike Brown, national embarrassment Mike Brown. It wasn't until 2007-08, however, with the Henry controversy that they saw the "Redeemer" Mike Brown:
"In the old days, if guys got into a fight, it was, 'Who won?'" Brown said, during a 2007 interview. "Now it's, 'Who's in jail?' It's just different."

He acknowledges that the game and society have changed - player arrests are no longer a laughing matter - but he still has a soft spot for troublemakers. When the Bengals had 10 players arrested in a 14-month span beginning in April 2006, Brown stuck to his stance that the public perception was bad, but the players were not. At the team's annual luncheon before the start of training camp last month, he discussed his philosophy in the most open way yet.

"I guess the world is divided up between redeemers and non-redeemers," Brown said, during an interview with a few reporters. "I happen to be a redeemer. I think people can be made better and right. If that's a fault, so be it. These guys misstepped, they made mistakes, they paid prices for it that have been verging on ruinous, but that doesn't mean I dislike them personally."


Did he create this "Redeemer Mike Brown" out of thin air? He had always been loyal, but he certainly had not been a redeemer nonpareil.

Here's my theory: Brown will never admit that he turned his father's franchise into the laughingstock of the league for a 15-year period. As he attempted turnaround after turnaround, though, he was forced to come to grips with the fact that free agents were only using his team's interest to drive up the price elsewhere. To compensate for that competitive disadvantage, Brown needed a way to add undervalued impact talent via the draft and free agency. In eschewing character concerns, he found a talent loophole. Reclamation project Cedric Benson's success has only enboldened the Bengals owner over the past year, encouraging him to look into every LJ, Pacman, and Moonshine that becomes available.